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Mar 26, 2013
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it was a much different environment. the move you're talking about from march of '93 to march of '94, the underlying fundamentals of the u.s. are economy are completely different. the fight was completely different a well. >> it's fair to say we're in a different environment in terms of the fed. absolutely. interest rates alone tell you that story. folks i know expect to see a big correction in credit. it will have different characterist characteristics. one guy told me he expects to see widening credit spreads which you wouldn't normally in this case. where i mentioned the bank balance sheet and the lack of gses, at least size of gses we once had, he worries about the effect where it's not easy to lay off risk. >> it's difficult to have a 1 1994, buying everything they can get their hands on. these guys talking about this implosion in the bond market, are they long or short the stock market? to me, it's the same trade. >> that's a great question. i was talking to one guy about this last week. he said, look, i wouldn't s
it was a much different environment. the move you're talking about from march of '93 to march of '94, the underlying fundamentals of the u.s. are economy are completely different. the fight was completely different a well. >> it's fair to say we're in a different environment in terms of the fed. absolutely. interest rates alone tell you that story. folks i know expect to see a big correction in credit. it will have different characterist characteristics. one guy told me he expects to see...
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Mar 18, 2013
03/13
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he had the environment in the first quarter to do it. credit spreads contracted significantly, volatility low. let's go to the strength of morgan stanley, global wealthy management. investment banking. profits up 50%, no one is talking about the hiring of gary cominski, our gary cominski. >> that's a game changer! >> let's not laugh it off. i've known gary over 20 years. morgan stanley is reaching out to do something interesting. gary is not going to go to an entity in which he believes the stock of that entity will fall. >> did he bulldoze? >> i agree with the points he's making. i'm long on financials. from a trading aspect, perception is reality as you well know. whether it's true or not, when there's concern out of europe, morgan stanley gets hit first and hardest. i want to stay long on the jpmorgans but morgan stanley is sittingprecariously on the long day average. if the banks go below the $22 range i think it's going back to 20. >> stephanie, who won? >> i think mike did, not necessarily for the european commentary but because i
he had the environment in the first quarter to do it. credit spreads contracted significantly, volatility low. let's go to the strength of morgan stanley, global wealthy management. investment banking. profits up 50%, no one is talking about the hiring of gary cominski, our gary cominski. >> that's a game changer! >> let's not laugh it off. i've known gary over 20 years. morgan stanley is reaching out to do something interesting. gary is not going to go to an entity in which he...
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Mar 22, 2013
03/13
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i think in this environment you don't do it. you break it down by sectors. a lot of the sector calls we've heard over the last couple wekts have been go after materials, go after technology that are lagging. they're going to come around and outperform again. i disagree with that. if you look today, the s&p 500 new 52-week highs, 36 of them 18 are consumer staples. i am adding to my financial names, american express, michael kors h but i want to be in consumer staples, in financials. i want to be what's leading the market right now. i don't want the commodity materials trade. >> put this into perspective. you could find a story that works for you this week. >> you can. and what's surprising to me is that the market is so strong going into the weekend with the deadline for cyprus right upon us. i would have to expect that the market is going to sell off, weaken a little bit, not go negative today as we move into the close and there's no resolution. where you want to be is pretty much where joe said. you have to go with what's working. i notice the airlines act
i think in this environment you don't do it. you break it down by sectors. a lot of the sector calls we've heard over the last couple wekts have been go after materials, go after technology that are lagging. they're going to come around and outperform again. i disagree with that. if you look today, the s&p 500 new 52-week highs, 36 of them 18 are consumer staples. i am adding to my financial names, american express, michael kors h but i want to be in consumer staples, in financials. i want...
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Mar 20, 2013
03/13
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. >> well, i think when you look at things right now you're looking at low interest rate environment. that's something we have been in for a long time. i think that's going to continue certainly we'll know more about that when we hear more from the fed. i think that's one. when you look at buying a home, versus renting a home, i think the advantage goes to the buying. look at what lennar has going, new orders are up 34%. we're up at $43, i missed it. i think it's doing higher. >> doc, what's going on? >> for 2013 i do think it's going higher, but in the short term the index of home builder confidence, these are the actual people swinging the hammers and so forth is now at a three-month slide. in other words, after having eight months of just very positive outlook, now they're negative. and you've got input costs. all the costs because of superstorm sandy and all the rest have increased for the guys. the problem for the home builders is supply. they don't have enough of it. so demand is there. supply and demand that's what you have to balance out. but they have too much demand. they do
. >> well, i think when you look at things right now you're looking at low interest rate environment. that's something we have been in for a long time. i think that's going to continue certainly we'll know more about that when we hear more from the fed. i think that's one. when you look at buying a home, versus renting a home, i think the advantage goes to the buying. look at what lennar has going, new orders are up 34%. we're up at $43, i missed it. i think it's doing higher. >>...
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Mar 25, 2013
03/13
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we see the uncertainty in the markets and business environment has been reduced. which it does set up though is it's going to make corporate leadership to dividend increases. >> one of the most interesting things of the notes that i'm reading from you today, stocks are not cheap, you say, which is certainly contrary to what we have heard from other people who say, yeah, they are cheap. >> it's a relative game, too, right? steve was talking before the break about japan and europe we tried to get our clients exposed to those markets. japan is much more attractive in terms of valuation multiples. you've got to go in and, of course, hedge 2 currency risk. >> the bond market, the great rotation where yields are relative to equities and how ones should be best positioned there? >> you've got to be prepared positioning now for a eventual rise in the interest rates. the fed program unmost precedented support on monetary terms is coming to an end. if you look at 150 basis point rise in the ten year, that will take you to 3 1/2. 30 years, 4 3/4. for a long-term bondholder i
we see the uncertainty in the markets and business environment has been reduced. which it does set up though is it's going to make corporate leadership to dividend increases. >> one of the most interesting things of the notes that i'm reading from you today, stocks are not cheap, you say, which is certainly contrary to what we have heard from other people who say, yeah, they are cheap. >> it's a relative game, too, right? steve was talking before the break about japan and europe we...
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Mar 19, 2013
03/13
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it seems pension funds are taking on a lot more risk, and whether that's a bad thing in the current environment to be doing with what is essentially the public's money. >> yeah, i think it shows how short they are of opportunities to invest money and what hedge funds are having to do to try and achieve those returns. there are gray henl funds and happy clients, but there's too much money in the industry overall to achieve the objectives that people have. >> simon, one of the major trends in asset management right now are products that are supposed to be able to deliver hedge fund-like strategies, but obviously, without the performance fee, but just taking an internal expense ratio. i have two questions for you on that. one, do you really think that that's something that can possibly be delivered in that manner? and, two, is that something you think large pension funds will ever take a liking to given how pedestrian an etf is, versus, you know, a $6 billion hedge fund? >> sure, a lot depends on the quality of the manager running the money, right? >> right. >> everybody knows fees are ridiculous.
it seems pension funds are taking on a lot more risk, and whether that's a bad thing in the current environment to be doing with what is essentially the public's money. >> yeah, i think it shows how short they are of opportunities to invest money and what hedge funds are having to do to try and achieve those returns. there are gray henl funds and happy clients, but there's too much money in the industry overall to achieve the objectives that people have. >> simon, one of the major...
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Mar 21, 2013
03/13
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i think the environment for u.s. equity markets is still favorable. one other thing out there as well including the takeaway from yesterday's fed meeting. my daughter was a swimmer, right, and swimming was all about tapering for events, right in the fed made it clear they are not going to go cold turkey and simply shut it off. what they will do is based on the conditions they will taper the amount of support they provide in terms of the purchases through qe3 so that will continue to be a fairly important backstop rule with the macro outlook as well as financial markets. >> i'm looking at your sector over and underweights. there seems to be kind of a relative value and mean reversion theme to the stocks you like, telecom and health care relatively expensive, utilities as well, on the list where you don't want to be there and tech industrials on the positive side. don't you agree though that there's something secular happening with those stocks where because they pay such high yields they should continue to do pretty well relative to the s&p, even thoug
i think the environment for u.s. equity markets is still favorable. one other thing out there as well including the takeaway from yesterday's fed meeting. my daughter was a swimmer, right, and swimming was all about tapering for events, right in the fed made it clear they are not going to go cold turkey and simply shut it off. what they will do is based on the conditions they will taper the amount of support they provide in terms of the purchases through qe3 so that will continue to be a fairly...